BITCOIN HALVING Te
Prize druppel ETA:
BITCOIN PRICE AND INFLATION:
xxx btc / xxx blocks
10min-blocks / 10-day average
10min-blocks / 10-day average
WHAT IS BITCOIN HALVING?
Ter the Bitcoin network, user transactions are grouped ter blocks and recorded to a digital public ledger called a blockchain. Miners are te charge of this task, and receive a mining prize ter the form of bitcoins for each block recorded.
The amount of bitcoins rewarded for each block decreases with time: it is halved every Four years. This event, the ogenblik when the mining prize is divided by Two, is commonly called “Bitcoin halving”. Other denominations are used: “prize druppel”, “prize halving”, or simply “the halving” or “the Halvening” which is a popular meme among bitcoiners.
When Bitcoin wasgoed created ter 2009, the initial prize wasgoed 50 bitcoins. Ter november 2012, it dropped to 25btc after the very first halving. The 2nd halving will take place ter July 2016, decreasing the prize to 12.5btc. Read more.
WHAT IS THE Influence ON BITCOIN PRICE?
Spil any loosely traded asset, Bitcoin price depends solely on request and supply. The evolution of bitcoins supply is hard coded and is known to everyone, so it all depends on the evolution of request. Bitcoin being a very youthfull currency with much slagroom to grow te use and value, I would personally bet on a price increase. How much? When? It remains 100% unpredictable. One thing is certain however: at the time of Halving, the supply reduction will already be priced ter the exchange rate, thanks to market anticipation. So don’t expect a big price movement on Halving Day.
Note that other examples of halvings are available for comparison.
The very first Bitcoin halving occurred on the 28th of November 2012. On that day the price went up +1.7%, a negligible budge.
However the preceding and following months showcased continued growth and led to the famous early-2013 rally (from 13$ to 260$ ter Four months).
More recently, the Litecoin, a Bitcoin clone, passed its very first halving on August 25th, 2015. Two months before, a wild speculative rally took the price from Two$ to more than 8$, before crashing back to Three$.
What is certain for this 2nd Bitcoin halving is that similar wild, speculative, short-term rallies and crashes will occur. The interesting observation will be, on a larger time-scale, to see if the up-trend that Bitcoin price has bot experiencing since its inception te 2009 will proceed its path.
HOW DOES THIS Webpagina WORK?
This web pagina is connected to several web APIs to provide real-time gegevens about the Bitcoin network.
The fresh block announcement is obtained through a websocket established with blockchain.informatie.
The spot price is provided by Bitstamp web API.
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Bitcoin mining prize, each time you mine you get 12.5BTC?
Condering the prize of mining bitcoin is two-fold: 1) When someone detect a block, gets the prize block (nowadays, 12.Five BTC) Two) Transaction fees of all the transactions included te block.
When you are mining (ter a elementary bitcoin way), the only thing you can do is attempting to build the next block with n transactions included? Te this way, the prize mining is going to be 12.Five plus n trasaction fees OR zero (if you didn`t get it) ?
How is it possible to mine a little time and get just 0.0001 BTC (for example) ?
Block 478,617 on the bitcoin metselspecie blockchain contained an interesting message – I won’t repeat what it said, but let’s just say the miner that mined this block doesn’t seem very fond of bitcoin metselspecie.
Ter this article, I’m going to explain what might motivate a miner that doesn’t like bitcoin metselspecie to mine a block on that chain.
Before wij can understand what’s going on with miners inbetween blockchains, wij have to learn a little bit about how miners make money. Miners make bitcoin (or any other proof-of-work cryptocurrency) by finding proof-of-work and creating blocks. They take both the coinbase prize (presently 12.Five BTC ter bitcoin) and fees (toughly 1.Five BTC) for each block.
The actual difficulty of finding the proof-of-work varies, and is adjusted by the network so that a block is found every Ten minutes.
When the bitcoin specie fork happened on August 1, both bitcoin and bitcoin contant had the same precies difficulty. That meant that a miner had to do the same amount of work on either blockchain to find a block.
Since the prize is denominated ter the currency of the blockchain, it’s economically rational for miners to mine on the chain that has a higher price. While bitcoin specie had a high of 0.Four BTC on Bittrex recently, that’s still nowhere near enough prize (0.Four * 14 = Five.6 BTC vs 14 BTC) for a miner to have enough economic incentive to mine Bitcoin Specie.
You might be asking yourself, why would any miner then mine on bitcoin metselspecie?
If you’re a miner that went only for short-term prizes, mining bitcoin specie would have made no sense. However, there are longer-term prizes to mining bitcoin specie that perhaps some miners were counting on. Te any case, to offset thesis risks a bit, the bitcoin metselspecie developers added an interesting hard fork rule that made mining on bitcoin specie lighter.
Spil I explained ter another article, bitcoin contant added a feature to adjust difficulty downward. Basically, if less than six blocks are found ter 12 hours, the difficulty goes down by 20%.
But, a downward adjustment te difficulty has a lotsbestemming of consequences for a miner. A miner will be able to find a block 20% swifter and thus spend 20% less violet wand. This means that mining a block on bitcoin metselspecie becomes more attractive.
Block 478,571 took 13 hours to mine, so there were six difficulty adjustments downward. This resulted te the difficulty of bitcoin contant being harshly 26.2% that of bitcoin.
Te this light, it is even possible that the amount of time it took to mine the 13-hour block wasgoed purposeful, meant to trigger adjustments and make bitcoin specie more attractive to mine.
Bitcoin is still more profitable to mine, however, spil it is providing harshly 10x the prize (current ratio of bitcoin price to bitcoin metselspecie price is toughly Ten:1) for 4x the work.
If, however, there were another 12 hours of no blocks on the bitcoin specie chain, this would trigger another 6 difficulty adjustments downward. This would mean that the difficulty on bitcoin contant would be 6.87% that of Bitcoin.
The profitability calculation would abruptly switch. Finding Bitcoin blocks would be 14.5x spil hard spil bitcoin metselspecie and assuming the price ratio stayed at around Ten:1, it would be more rational to mine bitcoin specie blocks instead.
An uittocht of miners from one coin to the other may cause bitcoin contant’s price to rise (hash power and price have correlated ter coins ter the past), making the problem worse.
Preventing a downward adjustment
So, how would a miner prevent a downward difficulty adjustment on bitcoin specie and trigger an leegloop of mining power from bitcoin?
The easiest way is to make sure bitcoin metselspecie mines 6 blocks every 12 hours! There are already miners that seem to be ideologically driven to keep mining on bitcoin contant, but another miner may have desired to make sure there were six blocks every 12 hours ter order to prevent the triggering of the downward difficulty adjustment.
By sacrificing some profit, a miner is able to prevent an uittocht of other miners. But then this brings up another problem, how do you tell others you are mining Bitcoin Contant not to support it, but to prevent a difficulty adjustment?
That’s where the coinbase message comes te. By adding the message that they did, they can signal to other miners that they’re not indeed supporting bitcoin metselspecie, but are blocking downward difficulty adjustments.
Spel theory often produces counter-intuitive results like this.
Miners have to take into account what other miners will do, and take steps to prevent it if that’s not ter their rente.
If this miner holds to this strategy, wij can expect that at least 6 blocks be found every 12 hours until block 479,808 when the normal difficulty adjustment will occur.
The leader te blockchain news, CoinDesk strives to suggest an open toneel for dialogue and discussion on all things blockchain by encouraging contributed articles. Spil such, the opinions voiced ter this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the view of CoinDesk.
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